Several years ago I was in New York City for a business conference. There were four of us from Boise sharing a hotel room on the 9th floor of a hotel. A hotel that had more floors than Idaho’s two tallest buildings combined. Crammed in a taxi returning from dinner we turned a corner and saw flashing lights and emergency vehicles several blocks a head. Having no idea where we were in the city, I jokingly said, “They’re putting out the fire in our hotel.”

As we approached the block we could see fire trucks with water dripping underneath as they pumped water through the hoses that ran through the front door of, ohhhhh nooooo, our hotel. Firefighters with sooty faces were scurrying back and forth carrying axes, saws, and ladders just like in the movies.

As it turned out everything was okay for us. The fire was one floor below our room and the firefighters had contained it to one room. They labored away for several hours mopping up. Mopping up is the term used for the unglamorous, messy, and hard work done to clean up after a fire is extinguished. Once the firefighters were gone the hotel attempted to calm everyone and allowed us back into our rooms. My friends were excited, relieved, and ready to go to bed. I was nervous, anxious and wanting to assign two hour shifts of fire watch through the rest of the night. 

Having been a firefighter for several years, I was remembering how many times we had returned to fire scenes for restarts. A restart happens when a fire is extinguished and everyone goes home happy thinking the worst is behind them. But some hot spot, or ember, is missed and hours later the fire restarts. Knowing all of this left me without the feeling of security and calm desired to sleep blissfully.

I have that same feeling listening to the euphoria following Monday’s stock market surge. Many people starved for good news are jubilantly thinking, it’s finally over, the market is going up. The fire of a free falling market may be over, but caution is still the best option. We may have seen the bottom, but just as likely not. There is still a high probability of restarts, more downs. In addition, whether the bottom has been touched or not, there are months of mopping up left. Economic recovery will take time. It is okay to relax while maintaining a cautious outlook regarding your investments. Prudence and patience are the keys to recovery. It is time to think about your plans for renovating your investment portfolio.

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